Despite reports that Sergio Aguero is happy to stay at Manchester City, the only certainty in top level football is that there is no certainty. With Chelsea reportedly eyeing up the Argentinian striker, a departure could be on the cards at some point in the future. For many, however, it would be crazy for Aguero to leave Manchester and head off to find golden streets in London like Dick Whittington.
In fact, to show you why it would be a crazy move, we’ve come up with five reasons the City hotshot should stay put.
1. If there’s strength in numbers then Manchester City might be the strongest squad in the league next season. While there’s no doubt Chelsea have a strong set-up, it sometimes feels as though they’re teetering on the brink of destruction when it comes to injuries and suspensions.
Yes, we know the likes of N’golo Kante and Eden Hazard are fantastic, but as soon as you start to delve a little deeper things get slightly sketchy. In contrast, City has quality throughout. From David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne to rising stars such as Leroy Sane, Aguero would be in great company if he remains at the Etihad Stadium. Star players thrive off other star players and City is a great place for the Argentinian striker to remain.
2. In terms of goals scored, Aguero netted 20 in the Premier League last season which was the same as Chelsea’s Diego Costa. Now, it could be argued that a goal is a goal regardless of how it comes, but in this instance the “how” is important. Looking through the stats, City’s Kevin De Bruyne had a phenomenal season in terms of assists.
18 decisive passes made him the top goal assister in the Premier League last season and, undoubtedly, helped Aguero to his tally of 20. In contrast, Chelsea’s top goal helper was Cesc Fabregas with 12. Although that’s by no means a bad stat, it’s a far cry from De Bruyne’s. In fact, even if you combine Pedro’s nine assists, the Chelsea duo are only just ahead of City’s assist king. So, again in this instance, Aguero would be better off at City as he’d get a lot more clean set-ups put his way.
3. If Aguero is someone that likes a flutter, the odds would also make him want to stay at Manchester City. According to the football bettingexperts at Sun Bets, the 2017/2018 title race is likely to be an all-Manchester affair. At the time of writing, City were leading Sun Bets’ odds chart at 9/5 for the title while United were in second at 3/1.
In contrast, the reigning champions are down in third at 10/3 for the title and 3/10 to finish in the top four. Naturally, the odds aren’t always correct and the bookies might miss a vital piece of information. However, at this stage, it looks as though Aguero will have a better chance of winning the Premier League if he stays put.
4. Another reason Aguero should stay at City is he’ll get the ball more often in theory. Based on Chelsea’s passing stats, the Argentinian would get fed the ball more often from all areas of the pitch if he remains at City. According to the raw data, Chelsea’s finest have an overall pass success percentage of 84%. Although impressive, City are currently dinking the ball around the park with an 86% success rate.
Similarly, City’s players keep the ball more often than Chelsea’s. By staying at City, Aguero can expect his teammates to have the ball 61% of the time, while he’d have to be content with a markedly worse 54% of the time if he transferred to Chelsea. Naturally, the stats don’t give you the whole story, but it stands to reason that a team with greater possession and better passing has a better shot at give a forward like Aguero the best service possible.
5. The final reason Aguero should continue to call the Etihad Stadium home is because City Manager Guardiola has a more attacking style. Although it didn’t always pan out too well for him last season, the Spaniard’s wiliness to create a crazy formation in order to give his side the most firepower possible is great for frontman like Aguero.
Indeed, when City took on Chelsea last season, the 3-2-4-1 system gave Guardiola’s men plenty of ammunition on the attack and it showed. Although the 3 vs. 3 strategy at the back meant a single slip could prove costly (something that eventually proved to be true), it showed that Guardiola isn’t afraid to take risks. For a player such as Aguero, this is the sort of side he should be involved with.
Sure, Chelsea’s now impressive 3-4-3 isn’t bad, but it doesn’t seem to offer as much flair or flexibility, which are two things Aguero can use to his advantage. Indeed, at this stage it looks as though this is his plan. However, as we know, the world of Premier League football can turn on a sixpence and he may just decide to defy the facts and make a break for Chelsea in the coming months.
Daniel Smyth is a freelance sports and betting writer with almost a decade’s worth of experience in the business. Covering everything from poker to sports betting, Daniel now produces math previews, betting reports and more for sites across the industry.