Tevez: Not just scoring goals but some very good ones too.

My name is Ian and I am the football freak behind www.thefootytipster.com, a tips site which covers leagues from all over the globe. My aim is to help you make some money and avoid the traps when it comes to football betting so please feel free to check out my site and make yourself a bit of money, or at the very least help yourself avoid losing some money!

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Manchester City vs Manchester United – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Well, this is the big game that everyone’s been waiting for – it’s the Manchester derby that will effectively decide the title. There are still two games remaining for both teams after this game but to me, whichever side gets something from this game will win the league as they’ll have the momentum and the ability to beat their remaining opponents.

Now, this should be a very interesting game because neither side can hide behind the fear to lose, which has often ruined this derby over the past few years. This time, City must win and United must avoid defeat so I expect a much more open game than the usual cagey affair that we tend to see between these two sides when they meet at the Ettihad.

So, who should I put my money on to win? Well, if you’re going to bet on a winner in this game then I simply can’t help you because I see no value whatsoever. I think the odds on City winning are marginally short but the odds are jumping all over the place as virtually the entire world wades in with its opinion. You can make arguments for or against either side doing the business (e.g. City’s resurgence with mercenary Tevez, United’s experience, revenge, the “bottling it” factor etc.) but I just have no interest in this market because any result could happen here, in my opinion.

The market which captures my attention is the over 2.5 goals market. Some bookies have dropped the odds to around 8/11 or 4/6, which is pretty wise, in my view. However, some are holding a higher line at 4/5 and that’s where the value is today. I think you could make a case for City’s recent displays perhaps not having been as good as the scorelines suggest that they’ve been but what has been massively improved is their conversion rate. A few weeks earlier, City were losing confidence because they weren’t taking their chances and thus the pressure on them defending well is increased because they needed the points and City bottled it, essentially. Bizarrely enough, the return of someone who should no longer be playing football at a professional level – Tevez – has inspired the team and they’ve started scoring goals again. Not just goals, but very good goals; good team goals to boot. Defensively, if you get at City, then they’re vulnerable. If you had all the money in the world to spend and would happily put Lescott in the central pairing of your defence then I’d call you a fool. Kompany is a class act but I feel sorry for him sometimes because aside from Hart, the poor fella is on his own most of the time with headless chickens all around him. Therefore, I do think that we’ll see City conceding in this game, as they have four times against Manchester United already this season.

However, Manchester United are more than capable of conceding goals against Manchester City too. I mean, the 1-6 scoreline at Old Trafford earlier this season flattered City but let’s face it – City did deserve to win the game and they do have the firepower to score goals against United again. City will be over the moon to see United defending like clowns of late, which has been a bit of a puzzling change around in fortune. What puzzles me is that United’s defence have a good starting position whenever they’re attacked and yet as soon as the ball goes into the box, their composure deserts them and we see two players going for the same ball or someone not doing their job and United concede as a result. No disrespect to Everton, but how else could they have scored four goals at Old Trafford without the above? It’s not like United to bottle it and thus I’m a little hesitant to say that that’s the case. However, United are vulnerable at the back right now for whatever reason and they can concede goals here. At the other end of the field, though, I’ll be amazed if City can keep out the lightning acceleration of Valencia, the skill of Nani, and the strength of Rooney, all of which I expect to start the game. Let’s not forget that United have more local lads playing for them than City do right now and this game could mean more to the Premier League champions rather than their opponents.

Still, that’s heading more toward the eventual winners of the game and I just can’t get drawn into that aspect of this game because I genuinely don’t know what will happen. I think United can totally overrun City down the flanks with their dominant wingers and I think that City could totally overrun United through the middle of the park because they’re much more mobile in that area of the pitch. It’s going to come down to which side holds their nerve the most and although I would favour United in that equation, I simply cannot endorse anyone backing a winner in this game.

Can you see this game ending without both sides scoring, though? It’s not happened yet this season and I don’t think it’ll start now. In my head, that makes this scoreline 1-1 before kick-off and therefore taking over 2.5 goals at 4/5 in the most important game of the season for both sides looks the most sensible way to approach this game from a betting perspective.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Good luck, guys and girls – let’s hope for a winner!